The Dunning-Kruger effect is a phenomenon where people with lower abilities in a particular area tend to overestimate their skills, and those with higher abilities underestimate themselves. Former Australian cricketer Greg Chappell has said the current iteration of the England team, with their Bazball approach, is going through the same.
“Their catastrophic failure, an echo of past collapses, can be neatly framed by the psychological phenomenon known as the Dunning-Kruger effect,” Chappell wrote in his The Sydney Morning Herald column. Unlike the previous English sides which have come to Down Under and taken a pasting (since 2010/11, which is when they last won a series), there was cautious optimism among fans that the side would compete better; however, after two Tests, Ben Stokes’ side is 2-0 down.
“In the context of English cricket’s game plan – the aggressive, often reckless approach dubbed ‘Bazball’ – the effect manifests as an overly positive spin on achievements and an unwillingness to accept that a method successful on flat English pitches and small grounds is fundamentally unsuited to the demanding conditions and quality opposition found in Australia,” Chappell wrote.
“The failure that has ensued across the first two Tests is a whole-of-system one, a catastrophic breakdown of both the game plan and its execution. While the players have been the immediate culprits, the off-field leaders – Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes – are equally responsible for not recognising the different challenges presented by Test cricket in Australia,” Chappell added.
Although the bowling did look good in the first innings on a spicy Perth wicket, once the surface got a bit flatter in the second innings, the England bowlers were blasted out of the attack by Travis Head in the chase and in Brisbane, the Australian batters were offered freebies on a platter in the first innings which helped them take a signficant first innings lead.
“England’s collective failure stems from their apparent inability, or refusal, to recognise and compete for this sacred piece of turf. Apart from Jofra Archer – and to a lesser extent Mark Wood – in the first innings in Perth, the England bowlers have been atrocious, bowling consistently too short and too wide,” Chappell wrote.
“The bad news is that England’s attack is set to become even more exposed, as Archer is unlikely to be able to back up for all three remaining Tests and Wood has been ruled out for the rest of the series. Unless Matthew Potts or Josh Tongue can bring some leadership and sense to the bowling unit before the third Test, I have concerns for their ability to change the narrative, which is in danger of becoming the modern equivalent of a long-playing record,” Chappell observed.
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“The better news, however, is they have three Tests; a window, albeit a shrinking one, in which to abandon the illusion of certainty and confront reality. This group has the chance to salvage the reputations and careers of many of the players and coaches involved. The remaining matches will determine if they can adapt and prove themselves competent, or if they will continue to suffer from the tragic illusion of the Dunning-Kruger effect, blinded by overconfidence until the series is lost,” he concluded.
